CHICAGO – January 16, 2013 - CareerBuilder’s first annual job forecast for the 10 largest world economies tells a tale of both confidence and caution. Brazil and India are voicing the greatest confidence with more than two-thirds of employers in these markets planning to add full-time, permanent headcount in 2013. Italy is the least optimistic, housing more employers who expect to decrease staff than those who expect to hire.
“The job outlook presents varying degrees of growth and deceleration as governments and businesses strive to rebuild and expand and deal with large deficits,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder. “Hiring activity in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is projected to be significantly higher than other markets while recruitment in Europe remains sluggish as leaders struggle to resolve a debt crisis that has global implications. The overall hiring picture is improving, but companies will remain watchful as they navigate headwinds and maneuver through somewhat precarious economic terrain.”
The survey, conducted by Harris Interactive© from November 1 to November 30, 2012, included more than 6,000 hiring managers in countries with the largest gross domestic product.
Current Financial Position
More than 60 percent of employers in the U.S. and BRIC countries reported that their company’s financial position is stronger compared to this time last year. Companies in Italy and Japan were the most likely to report that their financial situation has stayed the same or worsened.
Number of Employers Who Are in a Better Financial Position Than One Year Ago:
· India – 81%
· Brazil – 80%
· China – 67%
· Russia – 63%
· U.S. – 62%
· U.K. – 50%
· Germany – 45%
· France – 38%
· Japan – 34%
· Italy – 25%
Full-time, Permanent Hiring in 2013
Emerging economies are the most aggressive in terms of hiring plans despite a slowing in economic expansion. Brazil houses the largest percentage of employers adding headcount (71 percent), in part influenced by plans to host the upcoming World Cup and Summer Olympics and a better performing manufacturing sector. Although impacted by weakened trade and market demand, China’s and India’s GDP have grown at a rate that far outstrips the rest of the world’s major economies. More than half of employers in China and two-thirds in India plan to hire in 2013. Russia has hit record low unemployment and still benefits from metals and energy exports despite a fall off in demand in China and Europe. There is also a more aggressive push for high tech investments. Nearly half of Russian employers plan to add jobs.
European nations continue to battle another recession. The global decline further exacerbated the effects of austerity measures designed to manage down debt. One-third of Italian employers (33 percent) expect to downsize staffs, the highest of the top 10 economies. Hiring activity in France is expected to be flat with nearly one in four employers planning to add or decrease headcount. While 30 percent of U.K. employers plan to hire, 21 percent are anticipating a decline for a net increase of only 9 percent adding jobs. Germany, which has been somewhat insulated from the crisis but not immune, is more optimistic with nearly three in 10 employers planning to hire and 15 percent expecting a decline.
In the U.S., concerns over the fiscal cliff during the time of the survey may have resulted in more conservative predictions, but hiring activity has been on a gradual upward trajectory. Twenty-six percent will add new jobs this year.
Rounding out the top economies, Japan continues to work to resuscitate business investment and consumer spending after a devastating tsunami in 2011. While 22 percent of employers in Japan plan to increase staff, 19 percent expect to downsize.
· Brazil – 71% increase, 5% decrease, 20% no change
· India – 67% increase, 13% decrease, 17% no change
· Russia – 48% increase, 15% decrease, 36% no change
· China – 52% increase, 27% decrease, 21% no change
· U.S. – 26% increase, 9% decrease, 55% no change
· Germany – 29% increase, 15% decrease, 53% no change
· U.K. – 30% increase, 21% decrease, 46% no change
· Japan – 22% increase, 19% decrease, 56% no change
· France – 24% increase, 24% decrease, 48% no change
· Italy – 19% increase, 33% decrease, 43% no change
*Remaining percentage is undecided.
Top Jobs for the New Year
Across major markets, employers are most likely to hire for positions that are closely tied to revenue and innovation. Common themes of hiring in Sales, Customer Service, Information Technology and Production came through in the study, though it is notable that China was the only market that listed Research & Development in its top three areas for recruitment.
When asked to identify the top areas their organizations will be hiring for, employers pointed to:
· U.S. – Sales, Information Technology, Customer Service
· China – Sales, Research & Development, Production
· Japan – Information Technology, Engineering, Customer Service
· Germany – Information Technology, Sales, Production
· France – Production, Sales, Information Technology (IT tied with Customer Service)
· U.K. – Sales, Administrative, Customer Service
· Brazil – Customer Service, Information Technology, Administrative
· Italy – Production, Sales, Administrative
· Russia – Production, Customer Service, Engineering
· India – Information Technology, Marketing, Customer Service
This survey was conducted online within the U.S., Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia and the U.K. by Harris Interactive© on behalf of CareerBuilder among hiring managers and human resource professionals (employed full-time, not self-employed, non-government) between November 1 and November 30, 2012 (percentages for some questions are based on a subset, based on their responses to certain questions). With pure probability samples ranging from 400 to 2,611, one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error between +/- 4.9 and +/-1.92 percentage points. Sampling error for data from sub-samples is higher and varies.
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